Posted on: February 25, 2022, 09:44h.
Last updated on: February 25, 2022, 10:03h.
President Joe Biden wants to fill the Supreme Court’s forthcoming vacancy with Ketanji Brown Jackson, 51, a federal appeals court judge currently serving in the District of Columbia Circuit.
Jackson’s instantly historic nomination — the first Black woman to be nominated by a president to the Supreme Court in US history — will pay off for many political bettors. Following Justice Stephen Breyer’s resignation announcement last month, PredictIt bettors quickly snagged up shares of Jackson being named his successor.
Biden announced Jackson’s nomination today. It means PredictIt shares of Jackson being the next Supreme Court nominee will be redeemed at $1 each.
Jackson was the betting favorite from the start. Just hours after Breyer’s revelation that he will step down this summer, PredictIt debuted a market asking bettors, “Who will be the next Supreme Court nominee?”
Jackson opened as the odds-on favorite with her shares at 62 cents. Her stock gradually increased over the past month, those same shares trading as high as 80 cents this week prior to Biden announcing her nomination.
Lengthy Confirmation Expected
PredictIt bettors are one-for-one with Biden’s first Supreme Court pick. Those same bettors believe — and are putting money behind those beliefs — that the US Senate will take its time in confirming Jackson.
The US Constitution requires that Supreme Court nominees receive a simple majority backing in the Senate.
PredictIt bettors give Jackson just a 13% percent chance of receiving such confirmation by April 1. The political exchange’s market, “Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice by April 1?” went unchanged amid the nomination news.
Jackson will face her second Senate confirmation after being confirmed by the Congress’ upper chamber last June. Her federal appeals court appointment received a majority vote of 53-44, with three Senators not voting.
Only three Republicans — Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Susan Collins of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — voted with Democrats in confirming Jackson to the circuit bench.
The vote elevated Jackson from the US District Court for the District of Columbia to the more influential US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit.
Prior to becoming a judge, Jackson was a defense attorney before serving as assistant special counsel to the United States Sentencing Commission. Jackson additionally clerked for Justice Breyer from 1999 to 2000.
Senator Graham justified his support of Jackson last year by saying, “I think she’s qualified. I try to be somewhat consistent. I think she’s qualified for the job. She has a different philosophy than I do.”
Less than a year later, the South Carolina Republican is sounding a different tune on Jackson. Graham seemingly tweeted displeasure with her appointment to the Supreme Court.
I expect a respectful but interesting hearing in the Senate Judiciary Committee,” Graham said.
Since Democrats hold slim control of the Senate, with VP Kamala Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote in the split chamber, Jackson doesn’t need a single GOP vote in her favor to take Breyer’s seat. PredictIt bettors expect the vote to be close, with 52 votes in her favor currently the betting favorite.