President Joe Biden State of the Union Improves 2024 Reelection Odds

Home » President Joe Biden State of the Union Improves 2024 Reelection Odds

Posted on: March 2, 2022, 11:41h. 

Last updated on: March 2, 2022, 12:26h.

President Joe Biden delivered his first State of the Union address before Congress last night. And the speech convinced some political bettors that the 46th commander-in-chief can win a second term.

Joe Biden State of the Union 2024 odds
President Joe Biden delivers his first State of the Union on March 1, 2022. Vice President Kamala Harris and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi look on. (Image: AP)

Biden’s SOTU comes at a most perilous moment, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine likely forced a rewrite of the president’s address. The 79-year-old stumbled at times while reading from the teleprompter, but managed to highlight his administration’s claimed successes since taking office in January of 2021.

Biden’s report on the union was met with mixed reviews. But the roughly 62-minute speech nonetheless moved the 2024 odds in his favor.

Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” has former President Donald Trump still the front-runner at 28 cents. But Biden’s shares gained two cents since the SOTU, propelling his stock to an even quarter.

Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) lost a penny each in the wake of the Biden talk. At 23 cents, DeSantis has the third-best 2024 odds following Trump and Biden.

Putin Talking Points

President Biden began his State of the Union by addressing the Russia-Ukraine conflict and warning Vladimir Putin that democracy will prevail in Eastern Europe.

While Biden said the US would assist in closing off American airspace to all Russian flights, his union speech didn’t overly move PredictIt markets regarding the US president potentially meeting with Putin face-to-face. The odds of Biden meeting with Putin in person by July 1 increased just 1% to 10%.

Biden mentioned Putin 12 times but refrained from committing US troops to help defend Ukraine. Biden threatening Putin by way of financial repercussions only — and not by military assault — actually increased the Russian president’s odds of remaining in power.

“Will Vladimir Putin remain president of Russia throughout 2022?” saw “Yes” shares gain a penny in value after the SOTU.

‘Global Massacre’ Developing

Ukrainian officials said today that the civilian death toll has eclipsed 2,000 causalities. In recent days, Russia has ramped up its missile launches against numerous Ukrainian cities, resulting in mass death.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky maintained that Russia will not topple his government. Andriy Yermak, the head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine and sheltered alongside Zelensky in a Kyiv bunker, told The New York Times today that the war could escalate into a “global massacre.”

In a column published to the Times’ opinion page titled, “As I Write, President Zelensky Is Beside Me. Please, Help Us Show Putin the Mistake He Has Made,” Yermak calls on the western world — specifically the United States — to help defend its democracy.

This war could be a prologue to a greater European or even global massacre,” Zelensky’s right-hand man wrote. “Ukraine is not asking for its allies to put boots on the ground. But we need the West to back us up in order to keep defending our families and our land. We need to show Russia — in painful terms — the mistake it has made.”

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