Posted on: March 8, 2022, 10:14h.
Last updated on: March 8, 2022, 10:14h.
Emmanuel Macron is running away with the French presidential election. The incumbent leader already had a good head start, but Smarkets data shows that he is extending his odds.
The French will soon have to elect a new leader. Although there have been some struggles in the country, including protests over COVID-19 masks and claims of unfair wages, the sitting president will likely retain his position.
Smarkets Data Keeps Macron In For Round Two
As of today, Macron has an enormous lead over the other candidates in the presidential election. He is so far in front, that it no longer seems like a fair race. With a month to go, Macron’s the favorite to win at 91%. His closest competitor, Marine Le Pen, is at 4%.
Macron, who wants to create a European Union army, and Le Pen have been the two most likely candidates to control France for the next term. There are an additional 10 names on the ballot; however, none has enough staying power. The closest threat to Le Pen is Eric Zemmour, but his 3.33% isn’t proving to be cause for concern.
There may be 12 candidates on the ballot paper, but the French presidential election is looking more and more like a one-horse race, with the betting markets putting Emmanuel Macron way out in front. Anything other than an easy re-election for the President would count as a shock result right now,” asserts Smarkets Head of Political Markets Matthew Shaddick.
Macron has apparently proven himself to enough people to warrant another run in the Élysée Palace. The first round of voting arrives on April 10, and there doesn’t seem to be much standing in his way.
Run-Offs Still Possible
No French presidential candidate has won an election after only one round of the two-round system. With his massive lead, Macron could be the first; however, Smarkets users expect a run-off.
It’s more than likely that, for the second round of voting on April 24, Macron and Le Pen will face off. This is familiar territory for both, as they met in the final round in 2017.
On Smarkets, Macron is getting 96% to make it through to the second round; Le Pen is getting 70%. None of the other candidates comes remotely close to threatening either candidate’s position.
Zemmour is a contender to make it to the second round to face Macron. However, his chances are only at 29.41%. He’s been stuck there since before the end of February. His chances of winning the election, though, are just 3%.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon suddenly received some support from somewhere. He saw his chances of going to the second round increase slightly to 10% yesterday before dropping to 9.52% today.
Macron is winning on all counts. Absent any major controversy that would shake his position, he will likely win a second consecutive term as president. As a moneyline option, backing Macron wouldn’t offer a lot of winnings. It would be better to wager on how much of the vote he gets, with the smart money expecting him to receive more than 40% of the share.